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INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON NUCLEAR WAR AND PLANETARY EMERGENCIES — 40TH SESSION Proceedings of the International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies 40th Session Energy: Nuclear Power Present and Future; Sustainability of Biofuels; Resolving the Nuclear Waste - Climatology: Model and Statistics; Ozone and Climate Change Interaction; Spatio-Temporal Field of Atmospheric CO2; Forest Policies - Medicine: Vector-Borne Diseases; Screening Technology - Pollution: Air-Borne Particulates - Global Monitoring of the Planet: Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Regime; The Crisis in Internet Security; The Northern Sea Route - The Erice Science for Peace Award Scientific Session Erice, Italy , 19 - 24 August 2008 CONTENTS FRONT MATTER i OPENING SESSION THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINARS ON PLANETARY EMERGENCIES AND ASSOCIATED MEETINGS 40th SESSION ANTONINO ZICHICHI 3 ACCEPTANCE SPEECH FOR THE 2008 GIAN-CARLO WICK GOLD MEDAL MICHAEL CREUTZ 13 FOREST POLICIES, CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND BIODIVERSITY PROTECTION JAN SZYSZKO 15 OZONE AND CLIMATE CHANGE INTERACTION RUMEN D. BOJKOV 27 THE GEOMETRY OF THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL FIELD OF CO2 ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS MIKHAIL J. ANTONOVSKY 41 CLIMATE & METHODOLOGY FOCUS: BASIC THEORETICAL PROBLEMS—MODELS & STATISTICS INTRODUCTORY REMARKS: BASIC THEORETICAL PROBLEMS—MODELS AND STATISTICS CHRISTOPHER ESSEX 65 AUDITING TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS OF THE PAST 1000 YEARS STEPHEN MCINTYRE 69 DELINEATING DYNAMICS FROM NONLINEAR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ANASTASIOS A. TSONIS 85 CLIMATE VARIABILITY, SENSITIVITY DRIFT, AND "LUMPY" CLIMATE CHANGE KYLE L. SWANSON 93 ENERGY & POLLUTION FOCUS: NUCLEAR WASTE ISSUE ON THE ROAD TO SUSTAINABILITY RESOLVING THE NUCLEAR WASTE ISSUE ON THE ROAD TO SUSTAINABILITY FRANK L. PARKER and LORNE G. EVERETT 111 IS NUCLEAR WASTE THE ACHILLES' HEEL OF THE "NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE"? JOHN F. AHEARNE 115 HOW WE MANAGE AND PROCESS NUCLEAR WASTE JAMES A. RISPOLI, STEVEN L. KRAHN and STEVEN L. ROSS 123 LARGE RADIATION ACCIDENTS—ENVIRONMENTAL AND MEDICAL IMPACTS RUDOLPH ALEXAKHIN 151 EXTERNAL AND SOCIAL COSTS OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION RAINER FRIEDRICH 163 NATIONAL AND MULTINATIONAL REPOSITORIES: A PREREQUISITE FOR A NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE CHARLES MCCOMBIE, NEIL CHAPMAN and TOM ISAACS 179 CLIMATE & POLLUTION FOCUS: AIR-BORNE PARTICULATES AND HEALTH CONSEQUENCES IMPROVING PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES THROUGH SPACE TECHNOLOGY AND SPATIAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS STANLEY A. MORAIN 199 AIRBORNE DESERT DUST: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL HEALTH DALE W. GRIFFIN 219 FOOD & ENERGY FOCUS: SUSTAINABILITY OF BIOFUELS WORLD BIOFUEL SUPPLIES AND POLICIES CARMEN DIFIGLIO 225 HABITAT AND BIODIVERSITY LOSSES FROM BIOFUELS: LESSONS FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA Pin-Koh Lian 241 BIOFUEL POLICIES AND THE FOOD CRISES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES KWADWO ASENSO-OKYERE 265 MAJOR DRIVERS OF FOOD AND COMMODITY PRICE INCREASES, GLOBAL BIOFUELS PROGRAMS, AND THE GLOBAL LAND USE IMPACTS OF THOSE PROGRAMS WALLACE E. TYNER 271 INFORMATION SECURITY FOCUS: THE CRISIS IN INTERNET SECURITY PLENARY MEETING ON INFORMATION SECURITY FOCUS: THE CRISIS IN INTERNET SECURITY HENNING WEGENER 285 NEW CHALLENGES FOR IT-SECURITY RESEARCH IN ICT UDO HELMBRECHT and RAINER PLAGA 287 THE ROLE OF IDENTIFIERS IN GLOBAL CYBERSECURITY ROBERT E. KAHN 297 THE GLOBAL CYBERSECURITY AGENDA HAMADOUN I. TOURÉ 301 THE CRISIS IN INTERNET SECURITY: AN EU PERSPECTIVE JACQUES BUS 305 HOMELAND SECURITY VS. HOMELAND DEFENSE: GAPS GALORE JODY R. WESTBY 313 ENERGY FOCUS: NUCLEAR POWER PRESENT AND FUTURE NUCLEAR POWER PRESENT AND FUTURE RICHARD WILSON 333 RENAISSANCE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY, YEAR 2008 FRANTIŠEK JANOUCH 337 NUCLEAR ENERGY, PRESENT AND FUTURE DAVID J. HILL 347 NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE: INDUSTRIAL REQUIREMENTS FOR AN INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE IMPLEMENTATION PHILIPPE GARDERET 363 MEDICINE & CLIMATE FOCUS: GLOBAL WARMING & VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES CLIMATE CHANGE AND PUBLIC HEALTH DIEGO BURIOT 379 NEW APPROACHES FOR STUDYING VECTORS AND VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES DAVID ROGERS 387 UNDESIRED IMPORTS: AN ASIAN TIGER AND AN AFRICAN VIRUS ALESSANDRA BELLA TORRE 401 SURVEILLANCE AND PREVENTION OF ARBOVIRAL DISEASES: A CHALLENGE FOR THE FUTURE HERVÉ ZELLER 411 VIRUS EVOLUTION: CONTROL AND PREVENTION FRANCO MARIA RUGGERI 419 VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES IN THE ASIAN PART OF RUSSIA SERGEY NETESOV 423 GLOBAL MONITORING OF THE PLANET FOCUS: DISARMAMENT AND NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME — In Co-operation with the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs FROM THE NUCLEAR WAR EMERGENCY TO NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION ANTONINO ZICHICHI 431 SPECIAL SESSION ON NEW MILITARY THREATS IN THE MULTIPOLAR WORLD-DISARMAMENT AND NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME: THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN AND THE FISSILE MATERIAL CUT-OFF TREATIES CARLO TREZZA 443 CTBT: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES IN THE WIDER CONTEXT OF THE NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT AND NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME TIBOR TÓTH 447 GLOBAL MONITORING OF THE PLANET FOCUS: DISARMAMENT AND NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME — Subsession I—Challenges to the Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Regime NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE AND NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT: SYNERGIES OR ENEMIES GEORGE PERKOVICH 453 BUILDING A WALL BETWEEN NUCLEAR POWER AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS MARK FITZPATRICK 461 TOWARDS DISARMAMENT: WHAT ROLE FOR MIDDLE NUCLEAR POWERS? VENANCE JOURNÉ 467 REMOVING THE PERIL OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS—THE REYKJAVIK-2 APPROACH RICHARD L. GARWIN 477 GLOBAL MONITORING OF THE PLANET FOCUS: DISARMAMENT AND NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME — Subsession II—The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) THE ENDURING VALUE OF THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN AND PROSPECTS FOR ITS ENTRY INTO FORCE DARYL G. KIMBALL 481 THE COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR-TEST-BAN TREATY: CURRENT STATUS AND PROSPECTS SYLWIN GIŻOWSKI 489 GLOBAL MONITORING OF THE PLANET FOCUS: DISARMAMENT AND NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME — Subsession III—Negotiations for a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) PROSPECTS FOR A FISSILE MATERIAL CUT-OFF TREATY MARIUS GRINIUS 503 ANALYSIS OF RUSSIA'S ATTITUDE TOWARD NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT AND POSSIBLE FUTURE STEPS EUGENE MIASNIKOV 511 SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY FOCUS: GLOBAL MONITORING OF THE PLANET & INNOVATIONS IN SCREENING TECHNOLOGIES THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE: DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTIVE AND SCIENTIFIC TASKS ARTHUR CHILINGAROV 523 LOGICAL REASONING AND REASONABLE ANSWERS CONSISTENT WITH DECLARED OBJECTIVES FOR THE BENEFIT OF MANKIND DARIO B. CROSETTO 531 WFS GENERAL MEETING PMP REPORTS—DEBATE AND CONCLUSIONS PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL ON INFORMATION SECURITY: CHAIRMAN'S REPORT HENNING WEGENER 563 POLLUTION PMP ANNUAL REPORT LORNE G. EVERETT 565 PMP LIMITS OF DEVELOPMENT: REPORT TO THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY GERALDO GOMES SERRA 577 PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL REPORT ON ENERGY ART ROSENFELD and WILLIAM FULKERSON 587 AIDS AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES PMP FRANCO M. BUONAGURO 591 CLIMATE PMP REPORT WILLIAM A. SPRIGG 593 RESPONDING TO THE PROSPECT OF DIRTY DUST (THE RESIDUE FROM A RADIOLOGICAL DISPERSAL DEVICE—RDD) RICHARD L. GARWIN 597 PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL ON MOTIVATIONS FOR TERRORISM THE LORD ALDERDIC 607 MOTHER AND CHILD PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL: CLIMATE CHANGES AND MOTHER AND CHILD HEALTH NATHALIE CHARPAK 611 ENERGY PANEL MEETING OIL PRICES INCREASE: WHY? TILL WHEN!! HISHAM KHATIB 623 STATUS OF THE ITER BROADER APPROACH AND ITS RELATED PROBLEMS AKIRA MIYAHARA 627 MEMORANDUM ON THE PROTECTION OF JAPANESE NUCLEAR POWER STATION FROM THE ATTACK OF HEAVY EARTHQUAKES AKIRA MIYAHARA 631 INFORMATION SECURITY PANEL MEETING ELECTRONIC IDENTITY CARDS AND CITIZENS' PORTALS CONTRIBUTIONS TO A CULTURE OF CYBERSECURITY UDO HELMBRECHT 639 LIMITS OF DEVELOPMENT PANEL MEETING ACCELERATED CLIMATE CHANGE: AN UNEXPECTED NEW LIMIT FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ALBERTO GONZÁLEZ-POZO 645 THE ROLE OF FORESTS IN MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN LITHUANIA LEONARDAS KAIRIUKSTIS 655 CLIMATE, ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT GERALDO G. SERRA 667 5 PMPs MEETING—SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR SUSTAINABLE WELL-BEING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR SUSTAINABLE WELL-BEING Bill Fulkerson and Jef Ongena 675 SEMINAR PARTICIPANTS Seminar Participants 687 ETTORE MAJORANA ERICE SCIENCE FOR PEACE PRIZE: SCIENTIFIC SESSION — Energy and Climate: Managing Climate Change and Recommendations of the World Federation of Scientists FRAMEWORK FOR MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FROM ERICE WILLIAM FULKERSON and WILLIAM A. SPRIGG 699 THE COST OF DOING NOTHING BRUCE STRAM 711 CHALLENGE OF GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS - THE IEA 450 SCENARIO SCIENTIFIC SESSION ON THE WFS PLANETARY EMERGENCIES CARMEN DIFIGLIO 721 MITIGATION, ADAPTATION AND SUSTAINABILITY GERALDO G. SERRA 731 GEOENGINEERING: GETTING A START ON A POSSIBLE INSURANCE POLICY MICHAEL C. MACCRACKEN 747 Back

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