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INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON NUCLEAR WAR AND PLANETARY EMERGENCIES 38TH SESSION Proceedings of the International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies 38th Session World Energy Crisis; Managing Climate Change; Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases; Geoengineering & Adaptation; Theoretical Alternatives to Climate Modelling; Us Missile Defence Shield; Global Monitoring of the Planet; Life Cycle Nuclear Energy Environmental Issues; the Epidemic of Alzheimer; Infectious Agents and Cancer Erice, Italy, 19 - 24 August 2007 CONTENTS FRONT MATTER i OPENING SESSION THE INTERNATIONAL SEMINARS ON PLANETARY EMERGENCIES AND ASSOCIATED MEETINGS 38th SESSION ANTONINO ZICHICHI 3 COMBATING CLIMATE CHANGE: LAND USE AND BIODIVERSITY — POLAND'S POINT OF VIEW JAN SZYSZKO 5 THE ROLE OF STRATOSPHERIC AEROSOLS IN ANTAGONIZING THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE YURI A. IZRAEL 13 FROM MONITORING OF CO2 ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS TO MONITORING OF GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGE MIKHAIL J. ANTONOVSKY 21 ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT: A CHALLENGE FOR THE FUTURE GIUSEPPE VATINNO 43 ACCEPTANCE OF THE GIAN-CARLO WICK GOLD MEDAL ANDRÉ MARTIN 49 METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE: PROBLEMS AND EXPECTATIONS ANTONINO ZICHICHI 51 ENERGY & CLIMATE FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE—INTRODUCTION CLIMATE, ENERGY AND PLANETARY EMERGENCY WILLIAM A. SPRIGG and JOHN S. PERRY 79 MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE ARTHUR H. ROSENFELD 81 PLENARY SESSION: POLICY AND POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY EFFICIENT BUILDINGS ARTHUR H. ROSENFELD 91 ENERGY & CLIMATE FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE—CLIMATOLOGY CLIMATE CHANGE: KEY CONCLUSIONS FROM THE IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT (IPCC-AR4) FILIPPO GIORGI 101 TIPPING POINTS OR GRADUAL CLIMATE CHANGE? TIMOTHY M. LENTON 103 ENERGY & CLIMATE FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE—MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GASES CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSES: MITIGATION PETER BOSCH 117 OPPORTUNITIES IN THE BUILDING SECTOR: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE ARTHUR H. ROSENFELD and PATRICK MCAULIFFE 127 REDUCING THE GROWTH OF MOTOR VEHICLE CO2 EMISSIONS THROUGH 2050: EFFICIENCY, LOW-EMISSION FUELS AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES CARMEN DIFIGLIO 137 BIO-EPOCS Project ANDREA CONTIN 155 COOL URBAN SURFACES AND GLOBAL WARMING ARTHUR H. ROSENFELD and HASHEM AKBARI 163 ENERGY & CLIMATE FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE—FILLING THE GAP: GEO-ENGINEERING AND ADAPTATION GEO-ENGINEERING: A POSSIBLE INSURANCE POLICY MICHAEL C. MACCRACKEN 175 CLIMATE ENGINEERING AND PLANETRARY EMERGENCIES KEN CALDEIRA 187 ADAPTATION: A NATURAL STRATEGY WILLIAM FULKERSON and THOMAS J. WILBANKS 191 ENERGY & CLIMATE FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE—SUMMARIES & DEBATE SUMMARY OF SESSIONS 2 TO 5 AND COMMENTS RICHARD GARWIN 199 MISSILE PROLIFERATION AND DEFENSE FOCUS: U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD THE 2007 BUSH-PUTIN DISAGREEMENT: SOME BACKGROUND ON ANTI BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE RICHARD WILSON 209 BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE DEPLOYMENT TO POLAND AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC RICHARD L. GARWIN 213 CLIMATE FOCUS: THEORETICAL ALTERNATIVES TO CLIMATE MODELING THEORETICAL ALTERNATIVES TO CLIMATE MODELING CHRISTOPHER ESSEX 223 MODEL LIMITATIONS GRAEME L. STEPHENS 225 SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS BEHIND THE ARGUMENTS CONCERNING THE ROBUSTNESS OF CLIMATE MODELS GARTH W. PALTRIDGE 237 A NEW DYNAMICAL MECHANISM FOR MAJOR CLIMATE SHIFTS ANASTASIOS A. TSONIS 243 GLOBAL MONITORING OF THE PLANET FOCUS: THE NORTH POLE AND LIFE CYCLE NUCLEAR ENERGY ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES OPENING REMARKS ARTHUR NIKOLA YEVICH CHILINGAROV 251 UNDERSTANDING ENERGY PRODUCTION ENVIRONMENTAL EXTERNALITIES — A LITERATURE REVIEW FROM AN ENGINEERING PERSPECTIVE FRANK L. PARKER 253 NUCLEAR ENERGY AND RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL IN THE AGE OF RECYCLING JAMES L. CONCA and JUDITH WRIGHT 271 BRAIN DISEASES FOCUS: THE CRISIS OF LOSING MINDS THE EPIDEMIC OF ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE IN THE 21ST CENTURY HOW THE BRAIN CHANGES IN ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE BERNARDINO GHETTI 283 TREATMENT AND PREVENTION OF ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE: TRANSLATING BASIC RESEARCH FINDINGS STEVEN T. DEKOSKY 305 BIOLOGICAL EVIDENCE FOR AN INTERACTION BETWEEN AD AND CVD: OVERVIEW AND 3 HYPOTHESES CHARLES DECARLI 321 THE ROLE OF EPIDEMIOLOGY IN UNDERSTANDING ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE: THE MEANING OF “RISK” MARY GANGULI 341 ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE: GENETICS TO PATHOGENESIS JOHN HARDY 355 MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES FOCUS: INFECTIOUS AGENTS AND CANCER INTRODUCTORY REMARKS GUY DE THÉ 367 INTRODUCING INFECTIOUS AGENTS AND CANCER SESSION FRANCO M. BUONAGURO 369 EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ASPECTS: WORLDWIDE BURDEN SIZE ROBERT NEWTON 371 INFECTIOUS AGENTS AND CANCER: PATHOGENESIS JOHN L. ZIEGLER 383 MOLECULAR LINKS BETWEEN INFLAMMATION AND CANCER MASSIMO LOCATI 393 CANCER VACCINES MARC GIRARD 397 WFS GENERAL MEETING PMP REPORTS — DEBATE AND CONCLUSION PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL REPORT ON INFORMATION SECURITY HENNING WEGENER 405 PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL ON POLLUTION LORNE EVERETT 409 PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL REPORT ON LIMITS OF DEVELOPMENT GERALDO G. SERRA 417 AIDS AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES PMP GUY DETHÉ 419 RECOMMENDATION TO GOVERNMENTS FROM THE PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL ON ENERGY A. H. ROSENFELD 423 PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL ON CLIMATE AND GREENHOUSE GASES WILLIAM A. SPRIGG 425 MOTHER AND CHILD PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL: 2006-2007 ACTIVITIES NATHALIE CHARPAK 429 PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL REPORT ON TERRORISM AHMAD KAMAL 441 BRAIN AND BEHAVIOR WORKSHOP BRAIN & BEHAVIOUR—TWO TASKS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: TREATING AND PREVENTING ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE WORKSHOP 446 WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS 447 ENERGY-CLIMATE WORKSHOP SIMPLE UPSTREAM CONTROL OF CARBON 451 WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS 455 INFECTIOUS DISEASES WORKSHOP INFECTIOUS AGENTS AND CANCER WORKSHOP 458 WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS 459 CLIMATE MODELLING WORKSHOP CLIMATE— THEORETICAL ALTERNATIVES TO CLIMATE MODELLING WORKSHOP 462 INTRODUCTION CHRISTOPHER ESSEX 463 WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS 478 INFORMATION SECURITY WORKSHOP CYBERWAR OR CYBER-TERRORISM: THE ATTACK ON ESTONIA WILLIAM A. BARLETTA 481 THE SITUATION OF IT-SECURITY—A GERMAN PERSPECTIVE UDO HELMBRECHT 487 SECURITY CHALLENGES ARISING FROM INNOVATIONS IN INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES (ICT) VLADIMIR BRITKOV and AXEL LEHMANN 503 WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS 516 LIMITS OF DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOP LIMITS OF DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOP 518 LIMITATIONS OF DEVELOPMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE IMPACT OF RISING SEA LEVELS ON CITIES IN THE UNITED STATES JESSE D. SAGINOR and CHRISTOPHER D. ELLIS 519 DEALING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE: THE BRAZILIAN CASE GERALDO G. SERRA 533 CLIMATE CHANGE—CONSEQUENCES FOR EUROPE HILTMAR SCHUBERT 539 REGIONAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON WEST AND CENTRAL AFRICAN REGION MBARECK DIOP 545 IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE OVER THE TERRITORY OF ARGENTINA JUAN MANUEL BORTHAGARAY 555 WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS 566 SEMINAR PARTICIPANTS Seminar Participants 569 Back

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